The holiday season is known for its illiquidity in the cryptocurrency market, and this year is no exception. According to data from blockchain.com, confirmed Bitcoin (BTC) payments have sunk to a yearly low, marking the lowest point of the year.
Confirmed Bitcoin Payments: A Yearly Low
On December 26, the number of confirmed BTC payments reached 623,434, a stark contrast to the all-time high of over 857,000 payments that occurred on December 17. This significant drop in payments is a clear indication of the illiquidity characteristic of the holiday season.
Why Confirmed Payments Matter
Confirmed Bitcoin payments are transactions that have been accepted and included in a block by the blockchain network’s consensus mechanism, making them irreversible. These metrics can be used to gauge investor activity on the BTC network, providing valuable insights into market trends and sentiment.
Bitcoin Price and Confirmed Payments: A Year-Long Chart
The chart below illustrates the correlation between Bitcoin price and confirmed payments over the past year:
| Date | Confirmed Payments | BTC Price |
| — | — | — |
| Dec 26, 2024 | 623,434 | $90,000 |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 857,000 | $108,000 |
As the chart shows, the number of confirmed payments has a direct correlation with the price of Bitcoin. When prices are high, so are the number of confirmed payments, and vice versa.
Analysts Expect Imminent Price Recovery
Despite the current low in confirmed payments, analysts are predicting an imminent price recovery for Bitcoin above $105,000 as we enter the end of the holiday period. This is often associated with low institutional liquidity, which can lead to a surge in prices as investors re-enter the market.
Weak Social Sentiment Points to Imminent Price Recovery
The social sentiment around Bitcoin has been weak, with an average ratio of four to five positive versus negative comments on December 22, according to Cointelegraph. However, this low retail investor sentiment could be a sign of a forthcoming Bitcoin breakout, as contrarians know that markets move in the opposite direction of retail’s expectations.
A Breakout Ahead?
Market intelligence platform Santiment wrote in a December 22 X post:
"Vocal traders are now showing severe FUD [fear, uncertainty, and doubt], and that’s good news for contrarians who know markets move in the opposite direction of retail’s expectations."
Other Crypto Analysts Agree: End to Correction Under $100,000
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, told Cointelegraph on December 20:
"Post-Christmas, market activity typically picks up again, with funds expected to actively position for sectors that might benefit from Trump’s upcoming inauguration… The expected trading range for BTC this week is $94,000 – $105,000."
President-Elect Donald Trump’s Inauguration: Next Significant Catalyst
The inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump on January 20, 2025, could be the next significant catalyst for Bitcoin prices. As we discussed earlier, the expected trading range for BTC this week is $94,000 – $105,000.
Conclusion
The current low in confirmed Bitcoin payments is a clear indication of the illiquidity characteristic of the holiday season. However, analysts are predicting an imminent price recovery above $105,000 as we enter the end of the holiday period. With weak social sentiment and expected trading ranges, it’s likely that Bitcoin will see a breakout soon.
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