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IMF Cuts Canada’s Growth Forecast and Trims Global Rebound View Amid “Dangerous Divergence”

IMF Cuts Canada’s Growth Forecast and Trims Global Rebound View Amid “Dangerous Divergence”

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International Monetary Fund (IMF) Downgrades Canada’s Growth Forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest economic forecast, which includes a downgrade for Canada’s growth prospects. According to the report, Canada’s GDP is expected to grow at a slower pace than previously anticipated.

Global Economic Outlook

The IMF’s global economic outlook remains uncertain due to various factors, including the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on vaccination rates and policy support. The fund estimates that emerging economies will continue to face significant challenges in recovering from the pandemic, with gross domestic product (GDP) still undershooting pre-pandemic levels by 5.5% in 2024.

Inflation Risks

The IMF warns that inflation risks are skewed towards the upside, while growth risks are tilted towards the downside. The fund expects consumer prices to increase at a slower pace in advanced economies, but emerging and developing economies will still see higher price gains.

Policy Recommendations

The IMF recommends that central banks "generally look through" transitory inflation and avoid tightening monetary policy until they can secure more clarity on the economic outlook. However, policymakers should be prepared to act quickly if their economies strengthen faster than expected or if inflation expectations build.

Climate Change and Global Cooperation

As a meeting of international governments on fighting climate change approaches at the end of the month, the IMF calls for "stronger concrete commitments" from countries, including tailored international carbon price floors and US$100 billion in support for developing nations. The fund also emphasizes the need for rich countries to channel recent bolstering of IMF resources to more needy counterparts.

Potential Impact of Prolonged Pandemic

The IMF estimates that if COVID-19 has a prolonged impact, it could reduce global GDP by $5.3 trillion over the next five years relative to current projections. However, this impact could be offset if governments intensify efforts to equalize vaccine access.

Overall, the IMF’s latest forecast highlights the ongoing challenges facing the global economy and underscores the need for continued cooperation and policy support from countries around the world.

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